• Google and Deloitte publish a report that studies the transformation of the tourism sector from 1990 to 2040.

The tourism sector, an essential engine for economic and social growth worldwide, has demonstrated remarkable resilience following the slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, global tourism reached an 88% recovery compared to pre-pandemic levels, with a stronger resurgence in regions such as Europe, North America and South America. However, the recovery has been uneven, highlighting notable stagnation in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This disparity in the recovery of the sector and future projections are analyzed in the report “Travelers and NextGen Destinations“, prepared jointly by Google and Deloitte, which offers a detailed vision of the evolution of tourism since 1990 and its possible development until 2040.

The transformation of travelers and destinations until 2040

The report highlights the evolution of travel patterns and the transformation of key tourism destinations as the next two decades approach. By 2040, the number of international trips is expected to increase to 2.4 billion, driven largely by the growth of the global middle class, especially in regions such as Africa and the Americas, which will lead the expected annual growth rate with an increase in 4-5% annually.

One of the most relevant aspects of the study is the projection of a significant increase in international departures from the APAC region, which will attract more than 312 million new travelers, representing 33% of total incremental trips. Europe, although it will see continued growth, will be surpassed in pace by emerging regions, with an increase of 282 million new travelers, equivalent to 30% of the global total.

New dynamics in the markets of origin and destination

In the analysis of the main sending markets, the five largest (China, United States, Germany, United Kingdom and Russia) are expected to expand their market share to 42% of departures abroad by 2040, compared to 34% registered in 2019. However, countries such as Pakistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Mexico are expected to experience accelerated growth in international departures, driven by the rise of the middle class and economic expansion.

In terms of destinations, Europe will continue to attract the largest share of international tourists, with more than 362 million additional arrivals between 2019 and 2040. However, traditional destinations such as Spain, France, the United States and China are expected to maintain their presence in the top 5, although with a reduction in its global market share, while Italy could fall in the ranking, being surpassed by emerging destinations such as Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.

Four key groups for the future of global tourism

The report identifies four key destination groups that will account for 45% of global travelers in 2040: the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, the New Middle East and the Caribbean. These destinations are emerging as the main poles of tourist attraction, driven by regional economic growth, the development of tourist infrastructure and the adaptation to the new demands of travelers, who seek more personalized, sustainable and digitally connected experiences.

Facebook

Twitter

Linkedin