According to data collected by American Express Global Business Travel (GBY), air, hotel and ground transportation rates will experience a slight rise during 2017 globally. However, in Spain this upward trend is expected to slow and airline and hotel prices remain stable. GBT estimates that air fares range from a 1% drop to a 1.5% increase for the new year as a result of factors such as the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, Brexit, or security due to terrorism international. “All this has created an environment of uncertainty in the market that makes the impact of these factors on the travel industry is still unknown,” they point out from the firm.
Thus global air demand will remain at the record level of 2016, although low oil prices and strong competition between airlines could help keep rates in check, with different forecasts depending on the region. As for hotel activity, the GBT report anticipates that it will improve moderately but at a slower pace than it has done in 2016.
The average tariffs of the rent-a-car companies will also remain stable as the entry of new players and the increase of the capacity of the suppliers will cause a control of the tariffs at global level. An average increase of 0.6% is estimated. Although the impact of the collaborative economy (with platforms like Uber) is still “very limited”, there is already a gradual integration of the company’s travel program.
In Europe, airlines will continue to operate in an environment of enormous pressure in the face of growing concerns about security, the push of Gulf airlines over the long haul and the growing presence of low-cost airlines in short-haul air traffic.
Europe will see demand remain stable compared to 2016, ranging from -1.4% to + 2.9%. Concern for security due to international terrorism and political uncertainty will help maintain rates. The cities where rates are expected to grow the most during 2017 will be Dublin, St. Petersburg, Prague, Moscow and Dusseldorf.
As for the rest of the regions, North America could register the biggest fall in air fares, between 5.5% and 2.5% less compared to 2016, although it will have the largest increase in overnight hotel rates, between 2% and 4.6% more. Latin America could increase its rates by 1.7%, the highest increase among all regions, although GBT also indicates that they could fall by 4.2% depending on market conditions.